Drop into the future: Migration 2030

The daily images of African migrants stranded on the beaches of Lampedusa or struggling through the Sahel have impacted public opinion and become a source of tension between the European Union and West Africa. As passions rise, serious long-term consideration of the problem can no longer be avoided. With this in mind, Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung and the Center for Global Cooperation held a series of workshops on the topic "The future of migration policy: Building scenarios on the relations between Europe and West Africa". The four resulting scenarios, described below, are intended to shed light on what is at stake, as well as on the background context of migration policies between the two regions.

Four scenarios, one vision

The four scenarios were drawn up by a group of around 30 European and West African experts over the course of several events held in Berlin (30 June-2 July 2017), Dakar (8-10 September) and Brussels (18-20 November). This highly strategic tool will undoubtedly help to advocate for a more productive understanding of migratory movements, and to adopt a medium- and long-term approach to building more fruitful cooperation.

These four visions of the future should enable the right choices to be made today, in time.

A worsening situation in West Africa leads to a dramatic increase in migration to Europe.

In this scenario, by 2030 Africa is plagued by economic distress and virulent political crises. The failure of donor programs increases unemployment in key countries such as Nigeria and Côte d’Ivoire, where high population growth undermines development efforts. Migration to Europe from Africa increases dramatically despite dissuasive policies by the EU.

The migration flow from West Africa to Europe is jointly managed.

This configuration would see the externalization of EU borders, meaning the transfer of border management to third countries, carried out in cooperation, presenting both sides as credible partners, and effectively stemming the flow of illegal immigration. An economic upturn within the EU and the recasting of economic partnership agreements, as well as ongoing political stability, would provide a shot in the arm to the West African economy. The benefits of the Blue Card, an approved EU-wide work permit, are extended to African skilled workers.