What kind of just transition is needed to shape a climate resilient future for Kenya?

Robert Muthami, Programme Coordinator of FES Kenya, explores Kenya’s current efforts and position in ensuring a low carbon, climate-resilient future.

Kenya is a global player often leading part in various international discussions linked to the pressing issues of climate change and sustainable development. The country has its long-term development blueprint’s social, political and economic pillars (Vision 2030) aligned with the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). In 2016, Kenya also ratified the Paris Agreement and submitted a very ambitious commitment of reducing its greenhouse gas emissions by 30% by the year 2030.

In the end, however, success in achieving Vision 2030, the SDGs and living up to the commitments of the Paris Agreement will require a transition to a more equal, socially just, and ecologically sustainable economic model. This model would also have to consider global trends such as digitalisation and automation, which will a profound impact on the kind of jobs that Kenya will create in order to position itself competitively within the region and globally.

Climate change crisis and the transition to low carbon, climate-resilient future

In its climate change policies, plans, and programmes and as part of its commitment to the Paris Agreement, Kenya aims to achieve a low carbon, climate-resilient development pathway. Both the 2015 Paris Climate Change Agreement and the SDGs emphasize the inevitability of a shift toward a sustainable, net zero-carbon future for all. One of the country’s climate change mitigation strategies is to expand geothermal, solar, wind energy, and other renewable and clean energy options, to align its development agenda with the aspirations of the frameworks. The energy sector, for example, is a key economic driver and it is also responsible for contributing a significant proportion of the carbon emissions, and therefore must be at the centre of such an extensive shift.

Kenya has promising potential for power generation from renewable energy sources as the installed capacity consists of 70%  renewable  sources, with enormous potential to expand that base. The abundant sources of solar, hydro, wind, biomass and geothermal resources have led the government to seek the expansion of renewable energy generation. The expansion will lead to vast disruptions owing to the need for technological transformation and also to account for changes in use of resources such as land. One of the major challenges the country will face is that of enabling a low carbon economy that delivers poverty reduction and climate resilience simultaneously. Although this presents a social and technical challenge of staggering proportions, thinking about who sets the terms of transition raises key political questions about the role of actors, interests, and institutions as they seek to advance competing energy pathways and associated technologies.&nb

In July, 2019, the country launched one of Africa’s biggest wind power plant in Loiyangalani, Turkana that will deliver 310 megawatts of renewable energy to the national grid, effectively slashing power costs for consumers. By 2030, the goal is to expand geothermal power production to 5,530 megawatts (or 26% of total capacity), making it Kenya's largest source of clean energy. This transition will also come with new energy technologies and it is also expected that renewable energy jobs will significantly increase. At present, unemployment is a major problem in the country and it will be important to invest in both jobs and skills training to enable Kenyans to tap into the growing investments from the renewable energy sector.

Despite the huge potential of renewable energy, non-renewable energy sources, including the Lamu Coal Plant are also being explored. In August, 2019 the country also joined the league of oil-exporting countries, owing to the conclusion of 200,000 barrels at a price of Kenya shillings 1.2 billion ($12m). The Lamu coal plant was halted by the national environmental tribunal in June, 2019 on the grounds that a proper environment impact assessment study was not carried out. Amu Power, the company constructing the Lamu coal plant says its goal is to, “improve the lives of the communities in Lamu County through; employment creation, infrastructure development, upskilling of the youth and the provision of affordable energy generated from coal power” but what is the value of the project given the negative environmental and social implications it will lead to? Environmental groups deemed the ruling as a success on the pursuit to stop ‘dirty’ energy investments, however, there needs to be a bigger conversation on the political economy of the energy sector and the socioeconomic viability in line with the country’s climate ambition and pursuit for low carbon development pathway.